Work
My work develops a new theoretical architecture for understanding power, leadership, and systemic change in world politics. I originated the Theory of Power Credibility, which reframes power as a relational and belief‑driven phenomenon and demonstrates that great‑power behavior is stage‑specific rather than governed by invariant motives. In my recent research, I introduce two additional concepts: transformative depth, a criterion that unifies U.S. foreign policy streams by the degree to which they reshape the international system, and presidential system‑structuring leadership, which shows how executive agency becomes a decisive force at moments of crisis and strategic uncertainty. Across these projects, I aim to build a coherent paradigm that explains the evolving architecture of world politics and the strategic behavior of major powers in an age of instability.
Recent Books
US Foreign Policy and Presidential Leadership in an Age of Strategic Uncertainty
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2026)
In my most recent book, US Foreign Policy and Presidential Leadership in an Age of Strategic Uncertainty, I argue that American statecraft is currently at a critical systemic inflection point. Traditional frameworks no longer sufficiently explain US strategy amid modern challenges, such as intense great-power rivalry and geoeconomic polarization.
The book advances a new conceptual architecture – transformative depth – to classify U.S. foreign policy approaches. The framework distinguishes among policies that presidential administrations employ to reconstitute, reform, stabilize, or retrench America’s global role. It clarifies the deeper logics through which the United States positions itself amid a tumultuous global transformation marked by intensifying great‑power rivalry, geoeconomic polarization, and the erosion of long‑standing strategic assumptions.
At the center of the study is a reconsideration of the modern presidency as a structurally pivotal force during periods of systemic inflection. Through comparative analysis of the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, the book demonstrates how leadership style, personality, and professional background interact with external pressures to produce distinct trajectories in foreign, economic, and security policy. Featuring forty original tables and figures across economic, military, and strategic domains, the book offers a data‑rich analysis of the relationship between liberal internationalism and realism in U.S. strategy and its implications for national security and world order.
Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2018)
In this book, I introduced the Theory of Power Credibility (TPC), which challenges conventional assumptions by demonstrating how states facing relative decline prioritize the maximization of credible images of power. Drawing on cases involving the United States, China, Russia, France, and Britain, the book shows how concerns about status, legitimacy, and reputation shape strategic behavior. TPC explains why great powers often engage in seemingly erratic or escalatory actions that are, in fact, rooted in deeper anxieties about primacy and decline.
Smolnikov Strategy 